Forecasting
Capability trajectories, takeoff dynamics, and timelines for transformative AI. The pillar covers METR’s autonomous-task horizon trends, Epoch AI’s compute and dataset projections, AI population dynamics, scaling-laws extrapolations, and the broader strategic question of how much adaptation time exists between dangerous capability and effective response.
Most safety strategy disagreements trace back to underlying forecasting views: slow-takeoff worlds make iterative alignment viable; fast-takeoff worlds compress the field’s decision window dramatically. See takeoff-dynamics for the four-dimensional decomposition (Speed × Continuity × Homogeneity × Polarity) and intelligence-explosion for the recursive-self-improvement mechanism.